Tips for travel during hurricane season

Should you take advantage of seasonal discounts on travel to the tropics, or play it safe and just stay home? Before you attempt an answer, here's what you should know about travel during hurricane season.

Know the risk -- and minimize it

So is hurricane season off-limits for travel? It might surprise you that the chance of a short trip being affected by a hurricane is very small, according to expert Chris Landsea in a set of Frequently Asked Questions on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s website. The odds: Only one in 50 even if you travel during the worst conditions (i.e. to a hurricane hot-spot during peak season).

So what's the outlook this year? Unlike the past couple of years, which were predicted to be more active than the average, we're most likely in for a near-normal season in 2009. According to the NOAA, that means there's a good chance the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and South Eastern U.S. will see nine to 14 named storms, including four to seven hurricanes (one to three of which will turn into major ones).

If you're heading to a destination on the other side of the continent (like Hawaii), the Central Pacific Basin is expecting a near to below-normal season again this year, with three to five tropical cyclones expected. The Eastern Pacific Basin (where storms usually affect the west coast of Mexico and Central America) is expecting a slightly quieter season with only 13 to 18 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes (two to five of which will be major ones).

But there is one caveat: The NOAA warns that global weather patterns and "competing climate factors" are adding even more uncertainty to this year's forecast. In other words, there's still a chance that the seasons could turn out lower or higher levels of activity, depending on things like ocean temperatures and the development of an El Nino pattern.